To the disappointment of the Chancellor there are currently no positive signals coming from Copenhagen. "The news that has reached us is not good. At present there is no reasonable negotiation process in sight,” said Angela Merkel in her statement to the German Bundestag this morning.
The Chancellor sees the conference as a "test, of whether or not we will manage to take a new approach to global development”. Any failure in Copenhagen would bring with it the risk of dramatic fall-out.
Agreement on the two degree target is indispensable
For our global climate it is indispensable that an agreement is reached on limiting global warming to two degree Celsius. "If we fail to make this a shared and binding commitment for all nations, then I must say that the Copenhagen conference has failed,” said the Chancellor.
That would hit the poorest states hardest of all, but the rich countries would not remain unscathed either. If this target is not agreed, the costs of climate change will be far higher than the sums that we would now have to invest to mitigate climate change.
Along with the Environment Minister, the Chancellor will be fighting to salvage the conference. "Germany wants to see a political framework agreement with ambitious targets that is then translated into a legally binding agreement, as do I myself,” said Angela Merkel in a statement given following her speech in the German Bundestag, immediately before she left for Copenhagen.
The Chancellor re-affirms five demands for Copenhagen
All states must agree to the target of keeping global warming down to no more than two degrees Celsius as compared to the pre-industrial era. This then entails the following demands, according to the Chancellor:
1. CO2 emissions worldwide must be halved by 2050 as compared to the 1990 levels, with industrialised countries slashing emissions by 80 percent.
2. Reduction targets of between 25 and 40 percent of emissions by 2020 must be accepted by the industrialised nations. The pledges made so far by these nations fall far short of this, underscored Angela Merkel. She described the offer of the USA, to reduce emissions by about 4 percent of the 1990 levels as "not ambitious enough”.
3. The major emerging economies must become part of the international climate regime. The Chancellor affirmed the special responsibility of the industrialised countries, which have produced most of emissions to date. But even if the highly developed nations were to halt all emissions overnight, it would not be enough to reach the two degree target, she said. China in particular must be part of any agreement.
4. Reliable financing must be secured for technology transfer and mitigation of the consequences of climate change. To this end a long-term financial mechanism must be put in place, demanded the Chancellor.
5. The mandate and time schedule for translating political commitments into a legally binding agreement must be laid down. It would be desirable for this to be achieved by mid-2010, she said.
In Copenhagen it must be made clear that the governments of the world have understood. "Some issues can only be resolved at international level,” as the Chancellor put it.
